8
Don's Winner
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -27.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |