1
El Tio
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 87
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +18.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 27/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 19/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |