7
Liberty Valance
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 88
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -28.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 21/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 17/01/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 36% | -0.43 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |