Beach Heist
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 103
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-17 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -19.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |