10
Dashin' Diva
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 08/06/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 14/07/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 18/08/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 03/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 14/12/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 30/08/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 9% | -0.38 |