11
Debt Free
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 94
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-14 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-04-07 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 4-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 07/04/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 15/05/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 64% | -0.18 |
| 14/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |