12
Lindy Can
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 74
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#14
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-10-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 10-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 18/05/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/06/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 04/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 02/09/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 13/10/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 55% | -0.32 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |