7
Mackinac
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 90
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength52%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 5th | +5 |
| 2025-08-28 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 03/10/2025 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 10% | -0.56 |
| 29/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |