Mechaya
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 96
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 4th | +4 |
| 2025-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2024 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 04/10/2024 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 27/10/2024 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 10/05/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 31/05/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 28/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 6/5 | 94% | 38% | -0.56 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |