9
Moonlight Dash
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 95
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2025 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 56% | -0.40 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |