8
Mystic Realm
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 80
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#15
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength15%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |