Now Or Nevermore

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 86

Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark

Move▼2

Strength32%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C3.2

Today:

Class gap: +1.8

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Charles Town	?	8th	3rd	+5	7.5
2026-08-01	Colonial Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength22%

Delivery trend -71.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
01/08/2026	1st	16/1	16%	100%	+0.84
29/08/2026	8th	20/1	0%	13%	+0.13