15
Storm Cloud Rising
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 94
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength23%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/03/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |