2
Sweet Sissone
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 96
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 3-15 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |