14
Zoe's Prime
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 94
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2024-03-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2024-02-18 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 2-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2024 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 13/03/2024 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 12/04/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |