Bigtimetimmyjim
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 84
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 6.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 30/08/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |