Large Risk
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 65
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +15.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |