Lolo Le Plume
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 101
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | -2th | +6 |
| 2025-08-02 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -14.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 22/05/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/06/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 30/08/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 26/02/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |