Rugged Love

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 96

Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-07	Ellis Park	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-06-21	Churchill Downs	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6
2026-05-24	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -32.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/05/2026	3rd	6/1	68%	67%	-0.02
21/06/2026	1st	11/4	86%	100%	+0.14
07/08/2026	7th	7/2	82%	14%	-0.67