South Bend Tom
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 95
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2024 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 20/01/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 06/04/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |