8
Spirit Of A Walkon
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 97
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 12/10/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 45% | -0.28 |
| 28/12/2025 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 05/03/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |