1
First Creation
8yo Gelding · 11-4
Craon · Prix V And B (handicap De Craon - Challenge Apgo) Handicap · 1m 6f 200y
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cholet | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength86%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 87% | +0.08 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.05 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 45% | +0.03 |