3
C'est Vrai
4yo Colt · 9-3
Craon · Prix Haras De Bouquetot (prix Du Point Du Jour) Listed Stakes · 1m 44y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Toulouse | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Saint-Cloud | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Marseille-borely | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/07/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |