Matauri Bay

4yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 101

Craon · Prix Haras De Bouquetot (prix Du Point Du Jour) Listed Stakes · 1m 44y

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

90%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C1.4

Today:

Class gap: -0.6

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-19	Chantilly	1	6th	6th	+0	4.2
2026-06-14	Chantilly	1	3rd	3rd	+0	7.2
2026-05-24	ParisLongchamp	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-04-12	ParisLongchamp	1	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-03-08	Chantilly	1	3rd	3rd	−0	6.8
2025-11-21	Chantilly	?	1st	5th	−4	4.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▬

Strength56%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/04/2025	8th	16/1	16%	13%	-0.03
29/05/2025	5th	13/2	66%	33%	-0.32
02/11/2025	12th	16/1	16%	21%	+0.06
21/11/2025	1st	5/1	74%	100%	+0.26
08/03/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	71%	+0.35
12/04/2026	2nd	10/1	47%	83%	+0.36
24/05/2026	2nd	8/1	58%	86%	+0.28
14/06/2026	3rd	6/1	68%	33%	-0.35
19/07/2026	6th	10/1	47%	17%	-0.31