Spinning Lizzie

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 92

Craon · Prix Haras De Bouquetot (prix Du Point Du Jour) Listed Stakes · 1m 44y

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C1.4

Today:

Class gap: -0.6

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-31	Goodwood	2	5th	6th	−1	3.6
2026-07-04	Sandown	1	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-19	Royal Ascot	2	26th	27th	−1	1.0
2026-05-03	Newmarket	1	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-04-18	Newbury	1	8th	8th	+0	2.2
2026-03-28	Kempton	2	1st	2nd	−1	7.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength47%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/06/2025	12th	100/1	0%	31%	+0.31
31/07/2025	2nd	14/1	26%	90%	+0.64
24/08/2025	5th	18/1	5%	33%	+0.28
28/03/2026	1st	7/1	63%	100%	+0.37
18/04/2026	8th	22/1	0%	46%	+0.46
03/05/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	60%	+0.44
19/06/2026	26th	66/1	0%	14%	+0.14
04/07/2026	5th	28/1	0%	43%	+0.43
31/07/2026	5th	50/1	0%	33%	+0.33