11
Lagoa Santa
7yo Mare · 8-0
Craon · Prix Credit Mutuel (prix Du Val D'athee) Handicap · 6f 101y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Dieppe | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Pornichet | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Deauville | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-07 | Pornichet | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 26/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 07/01/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 07/02/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 27/02/2026 | 14th | 8/1 | 58% | 7% | -0.51 |
| 13/03/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 36% | -0.06 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |