9
Royal Ninian
5yo Gelding · 8-1
Craon · Prix Credit Mutuel (prix Du Val D'athee) Handicap · 6f 101y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 8.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | Nantes | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Machecoul | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-18 | Deauville | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 12-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 21/11/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 03/12/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 18/12/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/02/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 9% | -0.44 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 19/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 31/03/2026 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 23% | -0.43 |
| 14/04/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |