10
Stranger
9yo Gelding · 8-0
Craon · Prix Credit Mutuel (prix Du Val D'athee) Handicap · 6f 101y
#2
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Moulins | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Vichy | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength39%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 19/02/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 13/03/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 01/07/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/08/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |