Bid For Chester
5yo Gelding · 9-13
Craon · Prix Equidia (prix De Parislongchamp) Handicap · 6f 101y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 6.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 2 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2026-07-13 | Dieppe | 2 | 15th | 13th | +2 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 28/02/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 17/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 12/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 13/07/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/08/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 22/08/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |