12
Costarmoricain
5yo Gelding · 8-12
Craon · Prix Equidia (prix De Parislongchamp) Handicap · 6f 101y
#10
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Le Mans | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Les Sables | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Deauville | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Deauville | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 13-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 15th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/12/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 18/12/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 85% | +0.11 |
| 30/01/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 23/05/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 11/09/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 21% | -0.26 |