Goguen Spaise

6yo Gelding · 9-13

Craon · Prix Equidia (prix De Parislongchamp) Handicap · 6f 101y

#11

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read

Move▼1

Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C3.2

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-04	Le Lion D'angers	4	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-15	ParisLongchamp	3	10th	9th	+1	1.2
2026-05-07	ParisLongchamp	3	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-02-18	Pornichet	4	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-01-23	Deauville	2	14th	12th	+2	1.0
2025-12-26	Pornichet	?	1st	1st	0	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength76%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/09/2025	5th	22/1	0%	60%	+0.60
06/10/2025	5th	15/2	61%	71%	+0.11
20/10/2025	11th	20/1	0%	33%	+0.33
26/12/2025	1st	17/2	55%	100%	+0.45
23/01/2026	14th	66/1	0%	13%	+0.13
18/02/2026	3rd	17/2	55%	83%	+0.28
07/05/2026	7th	14/1	26%	33%	+0.07
15/06/2026	10th	25/1	0%	18%	+0.18
04/09/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	78%	+0.41