4
Marsiho
4yo Gelding · 9-10
Craon · Prix Equidia (prix De Parislongchamp) Handicap · 6f 101y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength44%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Fontainebleau | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 78% | -0.13 |
| 20/01/2026 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 10% | -0.69 |
| 17/03/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 13% | -0.56 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 92% | +0.37 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 09/07/2026 | 12th | 13/8 | 91% | 8% | -0.83 |