7
Nippe De Star
4yo Gelding · 9-2
Craon · Prix Equidia (prix De Parislongchamp) Handicap · 6f 101y
#13
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Le Lion D'angers | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Senonnes-Pouance | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nantes | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 10-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.44 |
| 03/05/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 29/05/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 53% | -0.26 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 93% | +0.27 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 77% | +0.01 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 31/07/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |