4
Hmas Perth
2yo Colt · 9-7
Curragh · Army Equitation Centenary Irish European Breeders Fund Maiden · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/11
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength10%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +3.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Doncaster | 2 | 2nd | -5th | +6 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength81%
Delivery trend -24.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |