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Breath Of Paradise

2yo Colt · 9-7

Curragh · Izuzu Ireland Irish European Breeders Fund Maiden · 1m 1f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

66%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much better effort in maidens at this track when 1¾ lengths third of 10 to Zarak Pasha in C&D event last month. More needed again if he's to be involved.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 7f Goo 1333/06C8C8 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m1f Goo 13316/08C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Curragh?3rd3rd0
2026-06-03Curragh?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0616/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +74.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/06/20264th12/137%40%+0.03
16/08/20263rd25/10%78%+0.78