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6

Charles Darwin

3yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 103

Curragh · Qatar Racing And Equestrian Club Renaissance Stakes (Group 3) · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

High-class juvenile who won the Norfolk Stakes before missing the rest of his 2-y-o campaign. Returned in April with a routine win in a listed race at Navan but has gone the wrong way since and has plenty of questions to answer with blinkers now removed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Curragh 12/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f Gd 13112/04C?C8 @ Navan 26/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 5f180y Sft 133C0 @ Naas 18/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 5f Goo 13418/05C?1 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 5f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Navan 25/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 110 · 5f180y Goo 136 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 110 par25/041OR 1101 @ Naas 17/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 110 · 5f205y Goo 134 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 110 par1 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 16th of 22 · OR 110 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 110 par19/061OR 1101 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 107 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 107 par18/071OR 107projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Curragh110th10th+0
2026-06-19Royal Ascot116th16th+0
2026-05-17Naas18th8th0
2026-04-25Navan11st1st−0
2025-06-19Royal Ascot11st1st+0
2025-05-18Naas?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0419/0619/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/04/20254th4/696%50%-0.46
26/04/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
18/05/20251st1/14100%100%+0.00
19/06/20251st8/1397%100%+0.03
25/04/20261st4/1198%100%+0.02
17/05/20268th1/195%0%-0.95
19/06/202616th10/147%29%-0.19
18/07/202610th12/137%0%-0.37