IvyArcIvyArc
8

Royal Bay Cen

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 104

Curragh · Qatar Racing And Equestrian Club Renaissance Stakes (Group 3) · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ex-French filly who went especially well fresh when winning a listed race impressively on stable debut at Cork on heavy going in May before respectable fourth of 8 in a Group 3 at Naas later that month. Now returns after 133 days off for in-form yard and demands respect.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Chantilly 14/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 4f213y Gd 11714/04C5C5 @ Saint-Cloud 01/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 119C5 @ Craon 11/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 6f101y GS 12411/06C5C5 @ La Teste De Buch 04/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 5f212y GS 1221 @ Deauville 03/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1233/081C1 @ Chantilly 20/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y GS 122C0 @ Chantilly 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 5f212y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS11/10C?1 @ Cork 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 98 · 5f110y Sft 128 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 98 par1 @ Naas 17/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 107 · 5f205y Goo 128 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 107 par17/051OR 107projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-17Naas14th4th0
2026-05-03Cork11st1st−0
2025-10-11Chantilly?5th5th+0
2025-09-20Chantilly?4th4th0
2025-08-03Deauville14th4th0
2025-07-04La Teste De Buch?1st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/044/0711/1017/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength81%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/04/20254th4/179%57%-0.22
01/05/20254th11/486%73%-0.13
11/06/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
04/07/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
03/08/20254th14/126%57%+0.31
20/09/20254th12/137%57%+0.20
11/10/20255th14/126%0%-0.26
03/05/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
17/05/20264th7/163%57%-0.06