9
Soul Love
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 101
Curragh · Qatar Racing And Equestrian Club Renaissance Stakes (Group 3) · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Naas | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Naas | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Goodwood | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Newcastle | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 14/04/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |