4
Tango Flare
7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 96
Curragh · Qatar Racing And Equestrian Club Renaissance Stakes (Group 3) · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲8
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 18.9 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | BHA98 | 9th | 20th | −9 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | BHA101 | 19th | 30th | −10 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | BHA96 | 1st | 12th | −9 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | BHA98 | 18th | 29th | −9 |
| 2026-04-27 | Naas | BHA99 | 9th | 20th | −9 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/09/2025 | 1st | 50/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 27/04/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 23/05/2026 | 18th | 20/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 18/07/2026 | 19th | 22/1 | 0% | 5% | +0.05 |
| 13/09/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 65% | +0.65 |