3
Port Arthur
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74
Curragh · Celebrating County Kildare And Lexington Twinning Maiden · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Punchestown | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Leopardstown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Curragh | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Naas | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 15/09/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |