Saga Lucia
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 73
Curragh · Celebrating County Kildare And Lexington Twinning Maiden · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Killarney | BHA75 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Dundalk | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -30.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 62% | +0.01 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 21/08/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |