1
Alpine Wedding
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 90
Curragh · Darley Fillies Stakes (Group 3) · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 10.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -6.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Cork | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | ? | 4th | 13th | −7 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cork | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 12th | −7 |
| 2026-06-04 | Leopardstown | ? | 5th | 14th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |