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3

Damsel In Distress

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 95

Curragh · Darley Fillies Stakes (Group 3) · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much sharper than first time up when scoring at Roscommon (7.5f) in June and progressed again when making the frame in listed race at Cork (7f) and when length third of 10 to Sea Of Rain in Flame of Tara Stakes at this track in August. Return to 7f shouldn't inconvenience and is one to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength16%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 6f60y Goo 12831/05C8C8 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 7f94y Goo 12630/06C81 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 7f Goo 12814/0811 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 95 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 95 par29/081OR 95projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Curragh13rd3rd0
2026-08-14Cork14th4th−0
2026-06-30Roscommon?1st10th−7
2026-05-31Listowel?5th14th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0530/0614/0829/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/05/20265th28/10%43%+0.43
30/06/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
14/08/20264th25/10%63%+0.63
29/08/20263rd17/255%78%+0.23