5
Fine Line
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 79
Curragh · Darley Fillies Stakes (Group 3) · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲6
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 13.3 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA61 | 4th | 11th | −6 |
| 2026-08-21 | Killarney | BHA63 | 4th | 11th | −6 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sligo | BHA64 | 7th | 14th | −6 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | ? | 10th | 19th | −7 |
| 2026-07-09 | Leopardstown | ? | 10th | 19th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength35%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 09/07/2026 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/07/2026 | 10th | 400/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 05/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 200/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |