6
Lady Patrona
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 85
Curragh · Darley Fillies Stakes (Group 3) · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -6.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | 1 | 7th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | BHA81 | 3rd | 12th | −8 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sligo | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-06-24 | Naas | ? | 4th | 13th | −7 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | ? | 4th | 13th | −7 |
| 2026-04-27 | Naas | ? | 2nd | 11th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength13%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 63% | +0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |