7
Tosca No Candis
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 92
Curragh · Darley Fillies Stakes (Group 3) · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength42%
Delivery trend +8.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |