2
Absurde
8yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 107
Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Punchestown | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | BHA153 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Cheltenham | 1 | 20th | 20th | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Flemington | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-14 | York | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 3384% of fieldRange 4-29 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength51%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 33.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 87% | +0.13 |
| 20/04/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/05/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 14/06/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 04/11/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.43 |
| 13/03/2026 | 20th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 05/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 01/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |