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32

Alphonse Le Grande

7yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 87

Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y

#31

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#31

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back down to the mark he landed the Cesarewitch from in 2024. Hasn't won since but not disgraced when beaten 10½ lengths at Goodwood (2½m) latest. Considered, especially if supported RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 20 · OR 93 · 2m3f210y Goo 131 · beat its mark17/06/2025 · OR 93 par17/062OR 932 @ York 20/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 93 · 2m56y Goo 128 · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 93 par2 @ Newmarket 11/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 19 · OR 93 · 2m2f Goo 125 · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 93 par11/102OR 933 @ Cheltenham 14/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 96 · 2m87y Sft 142 · beat its mark14/11/2025 · OR 96 parBHA92 @ Dundalk 28/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 92 · 2m Std 142 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 92 par28/1192OR 92BHA90 @ Cork 24/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 90 · 1m2f100y Goo 132 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 90 · 2m2f140y Goo 121 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 90 par8/052OR 902 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 87 · 2m56y Sta 137 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 87 · 2m4f137y Goo 122 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 87 par31/072OR 87projClass-projected finish: 18th of 33
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Goodwood24th4th0
2026-06-27Newcastle25th5th0
2026-05-08Chester212th12th0
2026-04-24CorkBHA9013th13th0
2025-11-28DundalkBHA927th7th0
2025-11-14Cheltenham36th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0614/118/0531/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish26th of 3322% of fieldRange 17-31 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength28%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 26th of 33. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/06/20258th15/261%63%+0.03
20/08/20255th4/179%67%-0.12
11/10/20258th12/137%61%+0.24
14/11/20256th5/287%64%-0.23
28/11/20257th6/168%50%-0.18
24/04/202613th40/10%20%+0.20
08/05/202612th40/10%21%+0.21
27/06/20265th8/158%79%+0.21
31/07/20264th10/147%79%+0.31