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12

Blake

5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 94

Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smooth traveller who posted a career-best Flat success at Leopardstown (1½m) on second start for present yard last autumn. Ended novice hurdle season with cracking second Grade 1 Champion Novice at Punchestown in April. Good record fresh and could be very interesting if he stays this longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2024 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 88 · 1m2f43y Goo 128 · beat its mark12/09/2024 · OR 88 par12/092OR 882 @ Newmarket 11/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 88 · 1m4f Goo 125 · beat its mark11/10/2024 · OR 88 parC8 @ Cork 20/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 19 · OR - · 2m150y Goo 16120/03C8BHA87 @ Leopardstown 19/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 87 · 1m4f Hvy 133 · below its mark19/10/2025 · OR 87 parC8 @ Down Royal 01/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 2m190y Yie 1661/11C81 @ Fairyhouse 30/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m Yie 1581 @ Leopardstown 01/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 139 · 2m Hvy 166 · below its mark01/02/2026 · OR 139 par1/021OR 1391 @ Naas 08/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 144 · 2m77y Sft 155 · below its mark08/03/2026 · OR 144 par1 @ Punchestown 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 138 · 2m132y Yie 166 · below its mark28/04/2026 · OR 138 par28/041OR 138projClass-projected finish: 6th of 33
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-28Punchestown12nd2nd0
2026-04-05Fairyhouse10
2026-03-08Naas12nd2nd0
2026-02-01Leopardstown15th5th0
2025-11-30Fairyhouse12nd2nd0
2025-11-01Down Royal?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0919/101/0228/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 3381% of fieldRange 6-33 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength40%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 33.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20245th13/266%56%-0.10
11/10/20246th20/10%64%+0.64
20/03/20252nd11/486%94%+0.09
19/10/20252nd16/116%93%+0.78
01/11/20251st85/4089%100%+0.11
30/11/20252nd8/158%86%+0.28
01/02/20265th18/15%64%+0.58
08/03/20262nd11/1094%75%-0.19
28/04/20262nd17/255%86%+0.30