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Chally Chute

8yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 109

Curragh · Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (0-110) (Premier Handicap) · 2m 170y

#1

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

89%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a listed event and C&D Group 3 here either side of finishing ½-length second in 2025 renewal of this race. Seemingly retains all that ability judged on a couple of starts in 1½m listed races in June, though is 5 lb higher than last year.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Killarney 24/08/2024 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 16624/08C8BHA103 @ Curragh 29/09/2024 · Pos 17th of 30 · OR 103 · 2m170y Goo 136 · below its mark29/09/2024 · OR 103 parBHA103 @ Curragh 22/10/2024 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 103 · 1m4f Yie 161 · below its mark22/10/2024 · OR 103 par22/10103OR 1031 @ Curragh 03/11/2024 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 101 · 1m4f Yie 133 · beat its mark03/11/2024 · OR 101 par1 @ Roscommon 01/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 97 · 1m4f17y Yie 137 · beat its mark01/07/2025 · OR 97 par1/071OR 97BHA104 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 30 · OR 104 · 2m170y Yie 141 · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 104 par1 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 112 · 2m71y Hvy 135 · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 112 par2/111OR 1121 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 112 · 1m4f70y Sft 138 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 112 par1 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 112 · 1m4f17y Goo 140 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 112 par30/061OR 112projClass-projected finish: 12th of 33
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-30Roscommon15th5th0
2026-06-19Limerick12nd2nd0
2025-11-02Curragh11st1st0
2025-09-28CurraghBHA1042nd2nd0
2025-07-01Roscommon11st1st0
2024-11-03Curragh113th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/083/112/1130/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 3388% of fieldRange 4-33 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength25%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 33.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/08/20245th6/492%69%-0.23
29/09/202417th40/10%45%+0.45
22/10/20245th5/493%60%-0.33
03/11/202413th50/10%25%+0.25
01/07/20251st125/10%100%+1.00
28/09/20252nd66/10%97%+0.97
02/11/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
19/06/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
30/06/20265th5/174%43%-0.31